{"schema_version":1,"module":"SlopeGuard 可重跑驗證台","generated_at":"2026-10-11T11:19:50.852701Z","mode":"historical_observation_and_synthetic_demo","history_status":"available","independent_historical_events":1,"case_count":3,"truth_events_added":0,"cases":[{"id":"historical_m0","title":"M0：歷史日曆警示觀測","kind":"historical_daily_proxy","synthetic":false,"model":"M0","event_id":"2026-0825-fangshan-debris","event_title":"南迴線枋山＝枋野土石流淹軌，全日停駛","event_date":"2026-08-25","station":"恆春","state":"OBSERVED_WARNING","expected_state":"OBSERVED_WARNING","matches_scenario":true,"assessment":"historical_observation","needs_manual_review":true,"first_warning_date":"2026-08-22","calendar_gap_days":3,"actual_lead_seconds":null,"lead_days":null,"timing_status":"NOT_MEASURED","observation_available_at":null,"event_observed_at":null,"search_window_complete":true,"units":{"calendar_gap_days":"日曆日差","event_count":"獨立事件件數"},"source":"/api/slope/models","note":"完整日總雨量須於該日結束、發布並被取得後才可使用；缺可用時間與事件精確時刻，實際提前時間未測。"},{"id":"historical_m1","title":"M1：未觀測到警示／漏報","kind":"historical_daily_proxy","synthetic":false,"model":"M1","event_id":"2026-0825-fangshan-debris","event_title":"南迴線枋山＝枋野土石流淹軌，全日停駛","event_date":"2026-08-25","station":"恆春","state":"NO_OBSERVED_WARNING","expected_state":"NO_OBSERVED_WARNING","matches_scenario":true,"assessment":"historical_observation","needs_manual_review":true,"first_warning_date":null,"calendar_gap_days":null,"actual_lead_seconds":null,"lead_days":null,"timing_status":"NOT_MEASURED","observation_available_at":null,"event_observed_at":null,"search_window_complete":true,"units":{"calendar_gap_days":"日曆日差","event_count":"獨立事件件數"},"source":"/api/slope/models","note":"完整日總雨量須於該日結束、發布並被取得後才可使用；缺可用時間與事件精確時刻，實際提前時間未測。"},{"id":"synthetic_interruption","title":"資料中斷／恢復：模擬健康評估","kind":"synthetic_source_health","synthetic":true,"fixture_now":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"risk_assessment":"unknown","scenarios":[{"id":"fresh","title":"資料仍在時效內","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"fresh","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"fresh","assessment":"available","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:50:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":600.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":false,"recommendation":"持續監看資料健康","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:50:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"fresh","assessment":"available","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:30:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":1800.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":false,"recommendation":"持續監看資料健康","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:30:00Z"}],"assessment":"source_data_fresh","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"stale","title":"雨量與QPE均過期","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"stale","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"stale","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:29:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":1860.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:29:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"stale","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T22:00:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":7200.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T22:00:00Z"}],"assessment":"unknown","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"missing","title":"未收到觀測時間","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"missing","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"missing","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":null,"checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":null,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":null},{"kind":"qpe","status":"missing","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":null,"checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":null,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":null}],"assessment":"unknown","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"invalid","title":"觀測內容不合法","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"invalid","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"invalid","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":120.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"invalid","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":900.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00Z"}],"assessment":"unknown","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"future","title":"觀測時間超前","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"future","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"future","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-02T00:30:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":-1800.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-02T00:30:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"future","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-02T00:30:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":-1800.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-02T00:30:00Z"}],"assessment":"unknown","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"error","title":"資料取得失敗","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"error","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"error","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":120.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"error","assessment":"unknown","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":900.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":true,"recommendation":"人工核查來源、時間與缺值；資料失效不等於安全","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","needs_manual_review":true,"fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00Z"}],"assessment":"unknown","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]},{"id":"recovered","title":"模擬恢復接收","synthetic":true,"expected_source_status":"fresh","matches_scenario":true,"sources":[{"kind":"rain","status":"fresh","assessment":"available","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":120.0,"max_age_seconds":1200,"manual_review":false,"recommendation":"持續監看資料健康","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:58:00Z"},{"kind":"qpe","status":"fresh","assessment":"available","observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00+00:00","checked_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00","age_seconds":900.0,"max_age_seconds":5400,"manual_review":false,"recommendation":"持續監看資料健康","policy":"本產品時效設定，非營運單位核定行車門檻","fixture_observed_at":"2026-10-01T23:45:00Z"}],"assessment":"source_data_fresh","risk_assessment":"unknown","needs_manual_review":true,"not_connected":[{"kind":"camera","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"},{"kind":"TRA_operational_alert","status":"NOT_CONNECTED"}]}],"recommended_scenario":"stale","truth_events_added":0,"source":"slope_health.evaluate_source（固定UTC純函式fixtures）","note":"所有中斷與恢復均為模擬；沒有停止輪詢、拔線、寫入 live DB、注入事件或發送行車指令。fresh只表示來源時效，不表示現場安全。"}],"protocol":"觀測日差＝事件前 14 個已完成日內首次觀測到 warning+ 的日曆日差；完整日值當日結束後才可知，缺發布與取得時間，可用提前量為 NOT_MEASURED；候選誤報＝warning+ 日且不在事件冊所載災害前 7 天（醞釀期）至結束後 3 天內；事件冊未載不等於無事件。候選誤報與低於 warning 日採相同已完成日×站排除窗，各站from/to之間補齊日曆缺日，未知日分開列出；M0需完整3日、M2需當日有效觀測。M0/M1的Rc缺值、歧義或無效時不計入模型命中、漏報、候選誤報或低警示比較；M0固定80/200觀測另保留。邊坡與區域淹水用於排除，non_slope_rail 不參與統計。","boundaries":["M0與M1重用同一既有事件，兩張展示卡不是兩件新真值。","歷史日曆日差不是實際可用提前量，後者保持NOT_MEASURED。","模擬中斷不改真實資料與服務；現場影像及臺鐵告警仍為NOT_CONNECTED。","資料時效正常不等於邊坡安全；處置須授權人員核查與核定。"]}